Central Asia: Projected Economic Deceleration (2025-2026) – SpecialEurasia

Executive Summary This report analyses the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) latest economic outlook concerning the Central Asian region, highlighting an expected deceleration in GDP growth of over 2025–2026. Despite the projected robust growth in some states, like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, the entire region is under growing strain because of global economic difficulties and domestic fiscal reforms. Inflationary trajectories diverge across the region, reflecting differentiated structural challenges and policy responses. The ADB’s projections underscore persistent geopolitical and economic risks that could compound regional vulnerabilities in the medium term. Key Takeaways The ADB forecasts a slowdown in Central Asia’s aggregate GDP growth from 5.4% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, influenced by global and fiscal pressures. Inflation will ease in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, but will rise in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan because of increased demand, tariffs, and currency depreciation risks. Structural reforms, regional integration, and improved trade logistics are critical to mitigating downside risks and sustaining long-term economic resilience. Background Information According to projections published in the ADB’s Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2025, the Central Asian region is entering a phase of economic moderation. Early April 2025 data projected regional GDP growth of 5.4% in 2025, slowing to 5.0% in 2026. These
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