Highly unlikely predictions: Infinite scroll bans, Facebook’s comeback, and OpenAI’s ad ambitions

Three of the least likely scenarios in social media would also be the most disruptive: a regulatory ban on addictive feed design, a Facebook revival, and an AI chatbot building a $100 billion ad business. None of them is likely. Each one exposes a tension already at work, from how regulators treat engagement mechanics to how much advertising a chatbot can actually carry. “If the EU were to ban infinite scrolling, it seems pretty clear that that would significantly curtail the amount of time people spend watching these kinds of videos,” said our analyst Max Willens on a recent episode of “Behind the Numbers.” Willens and two other analysts walked through three “what if” predictions on the episode. What if the EU bans infinite scroll? The European Union’s preliminary finding that Meta violated the Digital Services Act puts infinite scroll, the endless feed that keeps users engaged, in regulatory crosshairs. The EU specifically cited concerns about auto-playing video, ceaseless push notifications, and infinite scroll as problematic design features. Meta faces fines of up to 6% of its global turnover for non-compliance, roughly $12 billion based on last year’s revenue. The exposure is not confined to Europe. Meta has already lost
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