Why the US‑Canada trade war could change how American farmers grow their crops for years

by Jayash Paudel, University of Oklahoma, [This article first appeared in The Conversation, republished with permission] U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is getting personal for American farmers. After trade talks between the two longtime allies fell apart in mid-August 2026, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports worth roughly US$20 billion (CAD$27 billion). Canada responded on Aug. 25, 2026, by announcing its own plan to put retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on the same value of U.S. goods, effective Sept. 8. Canada’s list includes dairy products and agricultural equipment, and there is an unspoken threat that it could expand to a crucial component in fertilizer that U.S. farmers rely on. I have studied agriculture and water quality for more than a decade, including whether trade rules change how farmers manage their land. In my assessment, the enduring effect of this trade war on U.S. agriculture, if it continues to escalate, won’t be a single bad season. Across thousands of farms, farmers may have to reduce their fertilizer use as prices – already high from supply disruptions because of the war in Iran – rise. It may have little visible consequence at first
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