Middle East Security Alert: US Force Projection and Iranian Calculus – SpecialEurasia

Executive Summary This report evaluates the current US military repositioning toward the Middle East against Iran amid rising tensions, including Trump’s open advocacy for regime change in Tehran. It outlines background facts on the redeployment and analyses geopolitical drivers, including effects on global energy markets and Iranian internal cohesion. Key Takeaways The United States is repositioning significant naval and air assets, including the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, to the Middle East to conduct “coercive deterrence” and signal readiness for potential intervention following Iranian internal unrest. Any direct US military action or attempt at regime change faces a high risk of broad Iranian retaliation against US bases in the Gulf, Israeli territory, and global energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz. External pressure or the removal of top leadership could actually strengthen Iranian internal cohesion and empower hardline factions like the IRGC rather than fostering political moderation or liberalization. Information Background The US Navy redirected its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group from the South China Sea toward the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in the Middle East in response to escalating tensions with Iran. The transit will take several days before the carrier
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